When you have walked some distance into a quicksand, and are sinking deeper and deeper with every step you take, it is always difficult to decide whether you are more likely to reach firm ground by pressing forward or by going backward. You must do one or other. You cannot just stand fast, for that is inevitable destruction. The French government clearly are of opinion that safety lies in marching further into the quagmire. So three more German cities have been occupied, more burgomasters and officials expelled, more men and boys shot in the streets, more black troops imported, more regulations and more decrees issued; there are more depressions of French, Belgian and Italian exchanges, more confusion in everybody's business in Central Europe—in a sentence, everywhere there is more quaking sand and less solid coal. The total shortage in deliveries as compared with the promises of Spa was only eight per cent.[Pg 184] Had it not been for this fatuous invasion, France during the past six or seven weeks would have already received from the Ruhr nearly 3,000,000 tons in coal and in coke. France has actually received 50,000 tons during this period. A swarm of engineers, railwaymen, bargemen, officials of all kinds, and hotel waiters, supported by a formidable army have in six weeks produced this ridiculous output. No doubt the amount will later on be increased by further pressure and by pouring in more railwaymen, but it will be a long time ere France receives her Spa quota minus eight per cent., and then there will be some months' arrears to make up.  
No wonder that M. Loucheur stated flatly in the French Chamber that he did not approve of the Ruhr enterprise. He has one distinct advantage over the Ruhr plungers—he does know something about business. He can boast also of another gift, the possession of which is not without significance when you consider his present attitude. He is an admirable judge of to-morrow's weather. That is a rare endowment amongst politicians. Any simpleton can tell you which way the wind is blowing to-day, but it requires a man of special insight and experience in these matters to forecast the direction[Pg 185] of the wind to-morrow. M. Loucheur is one of those exceptionally well-equipped weather prophets. So he satisfies the opinion of to-day by giving his support to M. Poincaré, and he safeguards his position against the morrow's change by stating clearly that he does not approve the policy he supports. I have read no declaration from any French statesman of eminence—with the doubtful exception of M. Barthou—indicating a belief in the wisdom of the venture. And yet French courage, French pride, French loyalty, French patriotism—and maybe French blood and treasure—are committed irretrievably to a reckless gamble which most of the responsible statesmen who led France by their wisdom through her great troubles regard with doubt, anxiety and apprehension.
 
Will the French government try to extricate themselves from the difficulties into which they have precipitated their country and Europe? I fear not. Heedlessness rushes a man into danger; it needs courage to get out. And when getting out involves an admission of blame there are few men who possess that exalted type of courage. There are other reasons why the present government of France will flounder further into the quicksand. When [Pg 186]governments make mistakes in England, the threat of a Parliamentary defeat or a couple of adverse by-elections pulls them out roughly but safely, and the governments start on a new course amid the general satisfaction of friend and foe. The Willesden, Mitcham, and Liverpool elections rescued the government from one of the most hopeless muddles into which any administration has ever contrived to get its affairs. In similar circumstances in France a change of government is negotiated with amazing dexterity and celerity. But you cannot arrange the preliminary overthrow of an existing government unless there is some one in the background ready and willing to form the next. There are generally two or three outstanding men of high repute prepared to serve their country in any emergency. The trouble to-day in France is that every alternative leader disapproves of this enterprise and believes it must ultimately fail. On the other hand, there is no prominent figure in French politics prepared to take upon himself the odium of sounding the retreat. It would always be said that success was in sight............