The Charleville speech[4] and M. Poincaré's reply to Lord Curzon's despatch[5] leave things exactly where they were. Rumour said the reply would be long and logical. For once rumour hath not lied. M. Poincaré regards this exchange of bolstered notes as a pillow fight which he is quite prepared to prolong in order to gain time whilst the real struggle is developing to its destined end. The prominence given in the press to the fact that this rigid reply is "courteous" is significant of the pitiable condition to which the Entente has been brought by these maladroit negotiations.  
What will Mr. Stanley Baldwin and Lord Curzon do next? Much depends for Europe on that next step, and something for them also hangs upon their action or inaction. One is reminded of[Pg 226] the answer given by émile Ollivier to the question addressed to him as to his opinion of one of Napoleon the Third's experiments in constitutional government: "Si c'est une fin, vous êtes perdu; si c'est un commencement, vous êtes fondé." That sage comment is equally applicable to the Curzon note.
 
We can only "wait and see," first for the French official reply, and second for the decision of the British Government upon that note. The only new factor in the situation that may have a determining influence on events is the accession of Herr Stresemann to the German Chancellorship.[6] I know nothing of him beyond newspaper report, but he is generally supposed to be a man of energy, courage and resource. If that be true, his appointment to the official leadership of the German people may be an event of the first magnitude. We shall soon know what he is made of. Germany has suffered more from weak or misguided leadership in recent years than any great country in the world. It blundered her into the War, it blundered through the War, it blundered into the armistice, it [Pg 227]blundered during the peace negotiations, and it has blundered her affairs badly after the peace. But no one can predict what Germany is capable of with a wise and strong leadership. Herr Stresemann has a responsibility cast upon him and an opportunity afforded him such as have not been given to any statesman since the days of Stein and his coadjutors for regenerating his country and lifting her out of the slough of despond in which she has been sinking deeper and deeper. Those who ignore the effect which powerful and magnetic personalities may have upon the fortunes of nations in despair must have forgotten their history books. The fall of Dr. Cuno and the rise of Herr Stresemann may well turn out to be a more decisive event than the despatch or the publication of the Curzon note. But if he lacks those rare qualities which alone can inspire a people in an emergency to heroic action and endurance, then there is nothing but chaos ahead of Germany. For the moment it is more important to keep a discerning eye on Herr Stresemann than to watch this endless fencing between Downing Street and the Quai d'Orsay.
 
It is not often I find myself in agreement with[Pg 228] M. Poincaré, but when he states that British unemployment is not attributable to the occupation of the Ruhr I am substantially in accord with him. In July last[7] I called the attention of the House of Commons to world conditions which injuriously affected our export trade and made unemployment on a large scale inevitable in the British labour market for some time to come. We are more dependent on our overseas trade, export, entrep?t, shipping and incidental business than any country in the world. Almost half our industrial and commercial activities are associated with outside trade in all its forms. That is not a full statement of the case, for if this important section of our business were to languish, the home trade would also necessarily suffer by the consequential diminution in the purchasing capacity of our people. Before the French ever entered the Ruhr our overseas trade was down to 75 per cent. of its pre-war level. Our population has increased by two millions since 1913; our taxation has increased fourfold; our national debt tenfold; but our business is down 25 per cent. To what is this fall in our outside sales and services attributable? It is the direct consequence[Pg 229] of the War. Our customers throughout Europe are impoverished. What is just as bad, our customers' customers are impoverished. So that neither can buy at our stalls the quantities or the qualities which they could be relied upon to purchase before the War. Until Europe can buy, Australia, Canada, India and China cannot pay, as the Prime Minister pointed out in his last speech in the House of Commons. Germany, before the War, bought Australian wool, Canadi............